Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 210.844336 256.757061 313.844179 391.371381 496.044580 6.357235e+02 8.420769e+02
2025-06-01 152.100437 201.735548 271.220779 379.623622 552.613306 8.342592e+02 1.368227e+03
2025-06-08 120.244134 168.523597 241.639242 367.330300 594.534985 1.028813e+03 2.058505e+03
2025-06-15 108.900925 160.637068 245.050261 404.798720 733.785826 1.487061e+03 3.853374e+03
2025-06-22 95.410132 145.852961 232.634102 408.932562 810.638853 1.879609e+03 6.251438e+03
2025-06-29 86.442053 136.474479 226.833620 423.128594 917.333690 2.458179e+03 1.109447e+04
2025-07-06 77.240322 124.913499 214.227274 418.598899 976.200032 2.967611e+03 1.817210e+04
2025-07-13 74.081166 123.583168 220.881280 459.628919 1188.626623 4.382653e+03 4.701385e+04
2025-07-20 70.709718 121.205680 224.770713 495.630660 1416.733677 6.413978e+03 1.501128e+05
2025-07-27 67.010761 117.551769 225.080819 522.638753 1640.530972 9.171161e+03 6.782460e+05
2025-08-03 63.129113 112.924080 222.231382 539.985931 1846.876515 1.276723e+04 6.934295e+06
2025-08-10 59.003490 107.210916 215.749484 544.382590 2004.998612 1.693249e+04 5.350479e+09
2025-08-17 54.367570 100.052727 205.068013 533.987937 2096.405995 2.135263e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 49.970878 92.921306 193.345275 516.874143 2143.486540 2.595913e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 46.071403 86.441235 182.235339 498.574121 2172.221382 3.109337e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 45.585545 87.505577 190.826532 554.869471 2768.373507 6.701359e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 43.231304 84.004711 186.577244 561.125584 3028.930187 1.053419e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 41.589984 81.974913 186.046116 582.665860 3470.240854 2.059412e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 39.236616 77.997689 179.341522 575.782127 3650.001041 3.238268e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 38.967148 79.015410 187.351115 638.499387 4737.147235 1.657942e+06 NaN
2025-10-12 38.388900 79.199631 192.954196 694.185436 5998.108997 2.558877e+07 NaN
2025-10-19 37.468051 78.409721 195.410939 736.347458 7307.496702 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 36.282560 76.807244 194.988894 763.598224 8556.671886 NaN NaN